In November 2024, the United States is bracing for one of the most contentious presidential elections in recent history, marked by intense competition and deep polarization. Experts predict that this election will face unprecedented challenges, both internally and externally. These challenges range from pervasive election misinformation campaigns and the potential for escalating violence to anticipated sophisticated cyberattacks targeting the nation's election infrastructure.
Recognizing the gravity of these threats, U.S. federal agencies have come to understand that robust election security is the linchpin for safeguarding the electoral process—a process that stands as the very foundation of American democracy. In response, these agencies are working tirelessly to mitigate the myriad risks that threaten the integrity of the electoral infrastructure.
This overview will delve into three critical aspects of the 2024 U.S. presidential election: first, an examination of the key federal agencies tasked with ensuring election security; second, an analysis of the major security threats—spanning various types—that loom over the U.S. electoral system; and finally, a detailed look at the current measures being implemented to fortify this cornerstone of the democratic process.
Collective Responsibility
The states bear the primary responsibility for managing federal elections, yet they operate in close collaboration with various federal agencies. These include the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Department of Justice (DoJ), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS), and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which coordinates the United States Intelligence Community (IC). While these responsibilities have long been established, recent threats of influence, misinformation, and foreign interference in elections have driven many of these efforts more specifically.
The following outlines key initiatives undertaken by federal agencies in coordination with the states to ensure election security:
1- Protecting the security of voting systems:
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shoulders the responsibility for safeguarding the security of the election infrastructure, addressing both physical and cybersecurity threats through its various agencies. In a significant move, the DHS officially designated election infrastructure as part of the Government Facilities Sector in January 2017. This designation underscores that election infrastructure is vital to the American way of life, to such an extent that its disruption or destruction would have a devastating impact on the country. The DHS conceptualizes election infrastructure as a comprehensive network of systems, encompassing voter registration databases and their associated IT systems, systems used to manage elections (such as vote tallying, auditing, and the presentation of election results), voting systems and their associated infrastructure, and polling places, including early voting locations.
Working in tandem with the DHS, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) closely collaborates with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), a component of the Department of Homeland Security. Their joint efforts aim to assist state officials in fortifying election infrastructure security. To achieve this, they provide crucial threat briefings and technical assistance, thereby reinforcing the security of systems integral to the election process.
2- Protecting the right to vote:
The U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division plays a crucial role in safeguarding voting rights. It ensures compliance with federal laws that protect the right to vote, including both civil and criminal provisions. These laws encompass the Voting Rights Act, Help America Vote Act, National Voter Registration Act, Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, and Civil Rights Act. Collectively, these statutes prohibit electoral practices that result in voter intimidation or discrimination based on race, color, or language. Additionally, the Department of Justice collaborates with state-level judicial authorities to enforce federal voting rights laws effectively.
3- Addressing the threat of violence and physical harm:
Federal law enforcement agencies collaborate to prevent, protect against, and ensure accountability for election-related threats and violence. The FBI, Departments of Homeland Security and Justice, and U.S. Postal Inspection Service work in tandem to address these concerns. Their prevention efforts focus on relationship-building and information sharing to preempt potential threats. Protection measures include conducting security assessments, facilitating rapid responses to violent incidents, and assisting with security arrangements. Accountability efforts involve thorough investigations and maintaining efficient communication with prosecutors. The Department of Justice prosecutes criminal behavior targeting voters or election workers, while the U.S. Postal Inspection Service investigates threatening communications and suspicious materials sent through the mail to election officials and workers.
4- Combating foreign threats:
The Intelligence Community, spearheaded by the Foreign Malign Influence Center (FMIC), collaborates with key departments—State, Justice, Homeland Security, and Treasury—to identify, expose, and disrupt foreign actors' influence and information operations. These operations, often covert, coercive, criminal, or subversive in nature, aim to manipulate public or political attitudes, perceptions, and behaviors related to U.S. elections.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury wields significant authority under Executive Order 13848, enabling it to impose punitive measures against individuals and foreign entities linked to election interference or those providing material support for such activities. Complementing these efforts, the FBI established the Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) in late 2017, dedicating resources to identify and combat malign foreign influence operations targeting the United States.
5- Combating election fraud and campaign finance violations:
The Department of Justice, through its specialized Public Integrity Section within the Criminal Division, stands at the forefront of enforcing federal criminal laws designed to prevent and punish various forms of election fraud. This comprehensive approach targets a wide range of illicit activities, including ballot destruction, vote buying, multiple voting, submission of fraudulent ballots or registrations, vote tampering, and misconduct by officials, postal workers, or election employees.
Multidimensional Threats
The key threats associated with the upcoming U.S. presidential elections can be outlined as follows:
A. Internal threats: There are threats arising from within the United States, indicating real risks surrounding the American electoral race. These can be addressed as follows:
1- Lone-wolf terrorist attacks:
On September 14, 2024, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas issued a stark warning about one of the primary threats facing the United States in the lead-up to the presidential elections. He emphasized the danger posed by "lone offenders" who aim to disrupt voting and other public events. Mayorkas elaborated, "These are terrorists less concerned with highly valuable or highly visible targets, like the World Trade Center or the Pentagon, than they are with highly convenient targets, like schools and campuses, houses of worship, grocery stores, hospitals, polling places, election workers, and law enforcement officers."
Highlighting the evolving nature of these threats, Mayorkas noted, "These domestic criminals do not necessarily need a hijacked plane to commit an act of terrorism." Instead, they employ simple weapons to attack a wide range of targets, including educational institutions, religious sites, public spaces, and critical infrastructure. These lone-wolf terrorists are driven to violence by a complex mix of ideologies, including hatred, anti-government sentiments, conspiracy theories, or personal grievances.
The gravity of this threat was underscored by recent events, notably the assassination attempts on Trump in July and September 2024. These incidents served as stark examples of lone-wolf terrorist attacks, demonstrating the real and present danger posed by individuals who have been radicalized to violence.
2- Extremist inciting rhetoric:
Estimates suggest a concerning escalation of armed threats from far-left elements in the United States. Among the emerging leftist calls for violence, the most notable is the "Fuck the Fourth" campaign on an anarchist website. This provocative initiative urged designating July 4th as a day to target major ports across the country, including Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles, Boston, New York, New Jersey, and Baltimore.
However, election-related violence is not confined to the left; it extends to the far-right as well. Illustrating this point, far-right podcaster Stew Peters addressed his hundreds of thousands of Telegram followers with an alarming message: "Our judicial system has been weaponized... we are left with NO other option but to take matters into our own hands."
3- Threats of assassination against candidates and officials:
A comprehensive study from the University of Nebraska-Omaha reveals a disturbing trend: threats of assassination against electoral candidates and public officials have reached unprecedented levels. Over the past decade, law enforcement has arrested more than 500 individuals for making such threats, underscoring the gravity of the situation. High-profile figures such as Vice President Mike Pence, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin have all faced life-threatening situations. Notably, the assassination attempts on former President Trump stand out as the most significant evidence of the escalating political violence in the nation.
B. External threats: The U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that American elections present an "opportunity" for foreign intelligence entities to undermine trust in American institutions and the democratic process. These entities seek to sow divisions within American society, instill doubts about candidates' programs and political orientations, and manipulate voters in ways that serve the interests of their hostile regimes.
Distinct features highlight the unique external threats facing the 2024 American elections, including:
1- Traditional and non-traditional espionage tools:
Foreign actors employ both traditional, direct espionage tools and non-traditional, indirect methods to intervene in American elections. Traditional, direct patterns of influence include: cyber operations targeting election infrastructure; cyber operations aimed at political parties, campaigns, and public officials; and covert influence operations intended to sway public opinion, including that of politicians and the general public, with the goal of sowing division.
While professional intelligence officers seeking information or access to critical infrastructure often carry out these operations, non-traditional patterns of influence take a different approach. These are frequently linked to ideologically motivated entities and foreign cybercriminals, or occur indirectly through individuals involved in foreign direct investments in the United States and joint ventures. Such actors can provide adversaries with access to systems, networks, and critical information about the elections.
2- Deepfakes:
As technological advancements continue and artificial intelligence tools evolve, foreign actors are increasingly employing "deep fakes" to create false images and audio videos that can appear convincing. This sophisticated technique leads to the spread of electoral disinformation and erodes public trust, targeting both the candidates and the American electoral system as a whole.
3- Three-pronged external threats:
Most American reports concur that external threats primarily emanate from three countries: Russia, China, and Iran. These nations, through "malign influence," seek to erode Americans' trust in elections and undermine American democracy. U.S. intelligence estimates provide the following insights:
Russia:
In early September, the U.S. Department of Justice revealed that Russia had channeled $10 million to an unidentified media company in the United States. This company subsequently hired prominent right-wing influencers—some with millions of followers—to amplify divisions within the United States during the election period. Consequently, the Department of Justice has seized dozens of websites allegedly used by the Russian government to disseminate disinformation, aiming to interfere in the American presidential elections. Their ultimate objective is to sway voters towards a U.S. candidate who will curtail global support for Ukraine and advocate pro-Russian interests.
China:
Beijing is orchestrating a campaign dubbed "Spamouflage," utilizing fake or hacked accounts that impersonate American citizens to propagate anti-Western sentiments ahead of the elections. Since February, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has issued an intelligence assessment warning of Beijing's ambition to expand its global influence in support of Chinese Communist Party goals during the U.S. elections. Estimates suggest that these fake accounts, predominantly pro-Trump, promote conspiracy theories, exacerbate domestic divisions, and launch attacks on President Biden and the Democrats. In response, Meta has removed thousands of fake Facebook accounts operating from China.
Iran:
Tehran has emerged as a key player in the realm of American electoral disinformation. U.S. reports indicate that Iran has hacked individuals associated with Trump's campaign and attempted similar attacks on the Biden and Harris campaigns. Current estimates suggest that Iran is employing tactics similar to those used by Russia in 2016 to target the American electoral race. While Iran's efforts aim to undermine former President Donald Trump's campaign due to concerns about his potential return to the White House, it is noteworthy that Iranian groups linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps have also targeted the campaigns of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. This broader approach suggests that Tehran's ultimate goal is to incite internal discord and discredit the American democratic system on a global scale.
Preventive Measures
Two key measures reflect U.S. institutions' commitment to enhancing election security and preventing the escalation of electoral violence, both in the pre-election phase and on election day itself:
1- Support from the U.S. Department of Defense:
On August 29, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense approved a request from the Department of Homeland Security to assist the Secret Service for presidential candidates and the Vice President during the 2024 election campaigns and until the inauguration in 2025. The Pentagon's Secretary of Defense directed the commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) to plan, provide, and implement increased support for the U.S. Secret Service across various locations in the United States. This support includes logistical services, transportation, and facilitating communications throughout the 2024 election campaigns.
2- Approval of additional security reinforcements on January 6th 2025:
The Department of Homeland Security designated January 6, 2025, as a special event requiring enhanced security measures when Congress convenes to certify the winner of the 2024 presidential election. The U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security further classified this day as a National Special Security Event (NSSE). This designation entails the allocation of substantial federal, state, and local resources to bolster security protection at the Capitol in the months leading up to the event. A comprehensive and stringent security plan will be implemented to ensure the safety of the event and its participants, aiming to prevent a recurrence of the Capitol Hill attack on January 6, 2021.
In conclusion, the complex interplay of internal and external threats, coupled with their transnational nature, has compelled the American security community to develop a robust framework for election security. While elections remain primarily a political process, the multifaceted challenges they face have necessitated the involvement of law enforcement agencies to safeguard both U.S. national security and American democratic traditions.
The potential rejection of election results poses a significant risk to civil society, potentially exacerbating existing polarization within the nation. Furthermore, the mere threat of violence at polling places could have a chilling effect on voter participation, thereby distorting the true will of the American people. The implications of a compromised American electoral process extend beyond national borders; a perceived lack of integrity in the U.S. election system could embolden authoritarian rulers worldwide to challenge or undermine their own electoral processes.
